Archive for September, 2008

La giostra americana fa crash

Sep 30 2008 Published by Mario Sechi under America, Stocks

Il Congresso ha affondato (228 no, 205 sì) il piano di salvataggio finanziario predisposto dalla Casa Bianca e dal Tesoro, rivelando le difficoltà in cui si dibattono il Partito Democratico e il Partito Repubblicano.

Una brutta notizia per gli Stati Uniti che attraversano un periodo nero, tra i peggiori della storia americana. Non ci riferiamo solo all’economia, ma anche (e soprattutto) alla politica. Il Congresso è stato protagonista di un voto storico, dalle gravissime conseguenze: ieri il Dow Jones ha chiuso con la perdita peggiore di tutti i tempi, la riapertura di oggi fa temere il crac da panico. Ingovernabile.

I mercati aspettavano dalla politica americana un segnale di responsabilità e di fiducia. Nè i repubblicani nè i democratici sono stati capaci di offrirne almeno un po’. Lo stesso comportamento è stato di fatto incoraggiato dai due candidati alla presidenza: nè John McCain nè Barack Obama hanno appoggiato con forza il bailout, il risultato è che entrambi ora appaiono gli uomini sbagliati per guidare un Paese in questo momento smarrito e impaurito. E Wall Street ne misura la febbre.

I democratici si sono spaccati in più parti: il 60 per cento ha detto sì, poi il caos: c’è chi ha votato no pensando al business, chi ai taxpayers, chi ha deciso di stare con i lavoratori. E chi con se stesso. I repubblicani hanno confermato lo stato confusionale in cui versano: solo un terzo ha votato a favore, gli alfieri del free market hanno votato no, quelli che dicono di aver a cuore il bilancio federale pure, mentre 18 su 21 congressmen la cui riconferma è in bilico hanno votato no pensando al collegio elettorale. Così hanno fatto anche 10 su 15 democratici il cui seggio non è sicuro. Un disastro politico bipartisan dove spicca la prova negativa dello speaker della Camera dei Rappresentanti, Nancy Pelosi, che alla vigilia del voto ha tenuto un discorso talmente fazioso da alimentare le divisioni e innescare la bocciatura del piano.

I legislatori cercheranno un altro compromesso e un altro voto. Insomma, altro giro, altra corsa. E’ la giostra americana.

UPDATE: bloccato per troppo traffico il website del Congresso. L’indirizzo www.house.gov non risponde, è down. Così pure il sito di Nancy Pelosi e quello di Barney Frank, presidente del Financial Commitee. Crash.

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A common vision between Europe and United States

Sep 28 2008 Published by Mario Sechi under America, Europa

Ecco l’intervento del ministro degli Esteri Franco Frattini al convegno su “LE NUOVE RELAZIONI TRANSATLANTICHE” che si è tenuto a Washington il 22 settembre 2008.

• The recently published “Transatlantic Trends” report states that “in the last year of George W. Bush’s presidency, American and European policymakers have maintained a pragmatic tone, setting aside past differences over Iraq to highlight cooperation on common challenges in Afghanistan, Iran and the global economy”. In other words, despite recurring criticism and doubts, cooperation between the two sides of the Atlantic is still “alive and well” and the bonds of mutual friendship run very strong and deep. The Transatlantic Relationship remains today, more than ever, at the core of international relations.

• In the last two decades the world has changed. Thankfully we no longer have a bipolar order dominated by confrontation between two superpowers with Europe as the fault-line. Cooperation has replaced confrontation. However we are living, indeed, difficult times, which bring extraordinary dangers, as well as extraordinary opportunities.

• The world is changing under the influence of supranational, transnational and sub national powers, such as those of regional organizations, multinational corporations but also organised crime, and separatist movements. There are new global threats (global warming, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and international terrorism). And regional threats (in Middle East, Caucasus, Africa and elsewhere). There are also new international players: China, India, Brasil, to name a few.

• These developments and challenges require a new kind of global governance that Europe and US must shape together.

• Although it sometimes seems inevitable, unilateralism is an inappropriate and insufficient answer to the interconnected threats and challenges we all have to face. A common vision, a single purpose and joint actions between Europe and US are indispensable. As allies and partners, US and Europe are irreplaceable to each other. What makes the transatlantic bond really unique, oriented to the future as much as anchored to the past, is the magnitude of the ideals – and of the interests – that we share.

• We share the belief in liberty and the dignity of the individual as universal values, on which no compromise is admissible. We share the belief in democracy as the best possible model to provide the ideals of freedom and justice with their accomplished political expression. And we are both aware that the practical implementation of this ideal has to adjust in its form and timing, in order to take account of different situations, traditions and cultures. The interests we share are a direct consequence of the principles we believe in, as liberal democracies and free-market economies.

• The year 2003 was the year of the divisions between America and Europe, and within Europe itself, over the course of action to take in Iraq. It was a dramatic but instructive chapter. We Europeans have learnt that a strong relationship with the US is vitally instrumental to strengthen the unity of Europe; and, conversely, that tensions in our relationship with the US are a source of divisions and a factor of weakness for Europe. And it goes without saying that a weak and divided Europe will not be in a position to cope with the global threats and challenges as effectively as it should.

• But the US learnt lessons too. It learnt that to be successful in tackling those threats and challenges – threats and challenges nobody can face alone – America needs to rely on all the help it can gather from its friends and allies. And the US knows that a united Europe, which is willing and able to be actively involved as a global player, is the most trusted and credible ally and partner on which it can rely, as President Bush himself has often acknowledged.

• On both sides of the Atlantic we are now approaching a season of important changes. The way we will manage them will greatly influence the way we will be able to shape our alliance in the immediate future.

• In the US, the election of a new President represents a very important change which will have great influence worldwide. The interest and enthusiasm with which the world is following the campaign are the most tangible and reassuring pieces of evidence that the global appeal of the US is far from declining. The next US Administration’s foreign policy could partially differ from that of the Bush Administration. In any case, the Transatlantic Relationship will continue to be a priority for Washington, as both presidential candidates, Senator McCain and Senator Obama, have stated several times.

• In Europe we are also on the eve of important innovations, as well as challenges of great significance. As you know the 27 member States of the EU have signed a Treaty introducing substantial improvements in the institutional architecture and the decision-making procedures of the Union. I very much hope that in 2009 such innovations will enter into force despite the blow suffered with the recent referendum in Ireland rejecting the Treaty of Lisbon. Europe cannot afford to spend any more time paralyzed in the quicksand of the never-ending institutional negotiations which have been conducted for the last seven years. Globalisation is, indeed, progressing much quicker than our discussions on the reform of European Union institutions.

• Europe must get its act together. We need a stronger Europe, a global player which can be a serious and reliable partner to the US. A partner which does not avoid its responsibilities, especially in the sensitive field of defence and security policy, but is also willing and able to take them on in an appropriate manner. An ally who is finally capable of producing security, instead of being a net consumer at America’s expense. The leading European statesmen and the heads of key European institutions now all agree that building stronger ties with the US is an essential precondition of strengthening Europe’s cohesiveness and our ability to achieve the goal of being a stronger global player.

• A strong Europe needs a strong US. Washington is and will remain “the” crucial international player. Not everyone agrees. Some analysts have pointed out a trend of a progressive erosion or decline in the global standing of the US. This is not my view. In my opinion, the recurring prophecies of a declining power of the US will not be fulfilled.

• True, the emergence of new/old global players is a reality. This new fact does not imply, however, that the US is going to lose its world-wide pre-eminence anytime soon. The influence America is able to exert world-wide is also immaterial, something which is more difficult to measure objectively but is nonetheless extremely powerful.

• Without a strong and determined global leadership from the US, there is very little hope of success for the international community in tackling the complex challenges we face. And I believe that Europe, which rightly aims at being recognized the role, the status and the responsibilities of a global player, has a clear mission to pursue in this respect. The mission to help the US exercise its leadership as effectively and successfully as possible. More Europe, not less America: this should be our motto when we talk about transatlantic ties.

• In the global agenda there is no shortage of issues where such a joint leadership could and should be exercised: Afghanistan (where our common values and credibility are at stake); Middle East (where I would like to see a more political role of the European Union); Iran (where we have to implement a delicate “double track” policy – sanctions and dialogue); a reshaping of the international governance (in favour of an effective multilateralism); climate change (one of the main preoccupation of the American and European public opinion); international security (rising energy prices and economic turbulence seem to have shifted the political agenda away from terrorism in both US and Europe); promotion of democracy and human rights (which is a crucial element of the transatlantic identity).

• As for the instruments of our cooperation, we need, in particular, to broaden the NATO-EU relationship. This is not something that you can radically do overnight. But with a healty dose of flexibility, pragmatism and, above all, political will we could achieve this goal, as the EU develops its new security strategy and NATO considers a revision of its own Strategic Concept. I believe it is important to remind that what unites NATO and EU nations is, by far, more and stronger that what may divide them. In the near future no other group of nations will cooperate more closely among each other. Nor will there be another group that can generate a similar kind of “magnetism” in terms of promoting political and security cooperation.

The Atlantic Alliance remains the keystone of both the US and European foreign and security policies. NATO has already proved capable of transforming itself, adjusting to new contexts and threats. Now we have to make every effort to ensure that NATO succeeds in the crucial missions in which its forces are currently engaged, from Afghanistan to the Balkans, and where one of the most precious assets of the Alliance, its credibility, is at stake. The added value which NATO can provide goes beyond the merely military dimension. We should strive to deepen and improve the political dimension of the Alliance, in order to continue to provide a permanent forum for consultations between allies.

• For Italy, for may country a strong and vital transatlantic relationship is of paramount importance. The Italian Government, this Government, is willing and ready to contribute to the attainment of this goal. For Italy Atlanticism is a founding element, a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

• The Italian challenge is to provide constructive contributions to the building of a more efficient and effectively functioning multilateral system, which is the most appropriate answer to the complex challenges and threats that the international community has to address. We have a real opportunity to do so also within the G8, of which Italy will have the Presidency next year and which has a specific responsibility to deal with some of these pressing and crucial global issues.

• One of the overarching principles of the Italian Presidency of G8 will be the strengthening of outreach activities. We strongly believe in the need of engaging a growing number of actors in finding viable and sustainable solutions to the major global challenges. Therefore, our aim is to involve not only the G8 and the five major emerging economies (Brasil, Mexico, China, South Africa, India), according to a “variable geometry” scheme; we intend to include in our dialogue all the countries that can give a useful contribution to the efforts of coordination and cooperation in the regions that, due to their instability and exposure to radicalization, are more directly threatened by the spreading of terrorist groups.

• Nowadays the transatlantic relationship has to overcome a new test: the crisis between Russia and Georgia. While showing different sensitivities on the approach to choose especially vis-à- vis Moscow, up to now US and Europe have been able to take and keep a common line. We have deplored Russia’s excessive use of military force in Georgia and condemned its unilateral decision to recognise the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. We have called unanimously on the Russian government to withdraw its forces behind the pre-conflict lines. We have expressed our full support for Georgia’s territorial integrity. We have supplied emergency aid to Georgia and decided to convene an international conference to assist its reconstruction.

• The European Union under the French presidency has played a crucial role to stop the conflict and to develop a policy for a peaceful and lasting solution to the crisis. In particular, EU has decided to send an independent civilian observer mission to Georgia and has expressed its readiness to prepare and participate in the future international discussion on the resolution of the crisis. We supported the idea of an independent international inquiry into the conflict. In other words, the EU has shown to be capable to make the difference also in such a delicate situations.

• Italy have kept a politically balanced approach throughout the crisis. On the one hand, it has fostered a firm position and solidarity with its European and American allies. On the other hand, we have not renounced to develop an open and positive dialogue with Moscow. Without such a dialogue, we would reverse to a confrontational atmosphere between Russia and the West which would be of no use to anyone.

• Russia has a long tradition of being a European and world power, a regional, but also a kurd power. To regain its status as major power has been the first priority of Russian foreign policy during the Presidency of Putin. In many respects, this objective has been achieved. Russia is back. This is a fact we have to take into account. A constructive cooperation with Moscow – both in the NATO and EU context – is indispensable to face successfully all the most important international problems: Afghanistan, Iran, terrorism, just to name a few.

• Our american friends understand that when Italy, one of its closest ally, can also speak to Russia easily, that fact is an added value, and it’s part of the solution, not a problem.

• On this point, how to deal with Russia, Europe and US must make all the efforts to find a common ground. Disagreement and disunity on issues of vital interest is a luxury that neither of us cannot afford in the ever more independent global environment we live in.

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La stella cadente di via Solferino

Sep 27 2008 Published by Mario Sechi under America, Italia

I lettori di questo blog sanno che la politica estera da queste parti è trattata con passione e serietà, per questo non diamo quasi mai importanza a quanto scrivono i giornali italiani sulle elezioni americane. Troppa distanza tra la realtà e i desideri di chi scrive.

Tuttavia, appena rientrato da Washington, mi capita di leggere sul Corriere della Sera online che “La stella di Sarah Palin è al tramonto”. Davvero sorprendente, perchè mentre il primo quotidiano italiano emette il suo verdetto, i responsabili della campagna di Barack Obama esprimono un’opinione del tutto diversa sulla running mate di John McCain: “She is a terrific debater”.

Non penso che in via Solferino abbiano bisogno della traduzione. Comunque, è bene che al corrispondente dagli Stati Uniti facciano leggere cosa dicono su The Politico i consiglieri di Obama sulla stella cadente Palin:

Anyone who watches any of her previous debates would be impressed by her debating skills.

We’ve looked at tapes of Gov. Palin’s debates, and she’s a terrific debater

David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager

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The Mac is back

Sep 27 2008 Published by Mario Sechi under America

Prendo in prestito il titolo che The Politico ha dedicato alla prova di John McCain nel primo dibattito presidenziale (qui la trascrizione integrale) con Barack Obama. Il senatore dell’Arizona, pressato dalla ciclopica crisi finanziaria, è stato una sorpresa, perchè ha battuto Obama nel terreno dove sembrava impossibile vincere: la comunicazione.

Un risultato riconosciuto da tutti gli analisti politici, tanto che i media liberal hanno dovuto faticosamente arrangiare un “pareggio” che in realtà non c’è stato. McCain è andato davvero bene, il suo stile è risultato concreto, diretto, asciutto e… presidenziale.

Così non è apparso il senatore dell’Illinois, stranamente contratto, a volte in palese difficoltà, comunque incapace di uscire dal leit-motiv Bush=McCain.

Sulla politica estera McCain rispetto a Obama è apparso un gigante. A un certo punto è venuto fuori il soldato e a Obama è arrivato un colpo duro alla mascella quando McCain con un sorriso beffardo gli ha detto: “…sembra non capire la differenza tra tattica e strategia…”. E mentre Obama faceva scorrere le lancette dell’orologio al 2003 e allo start della guerra in Iraq, McCain riportava il calendario al 2007 quando Obama giudicava la strategia di surge del generale Petraeus sbagliata. Si sbagliava Obama e McCain l’ha ricordato più volte.

McCain è apparso in grado di disegnare una grand strategy per il Medio Oriente, dove l’Iraq è un punto fermo ed è un ponte con l’Afghanistan. Obama ha tentennato pericolosamente sull’Iran e il dialogo con un tiranno capace di dire che bisogna cancellare Israele dalla carta geografica. Obama è appeasement, McCain è una politica estera che si mostrata dura e realista. Obama fa il multilateralista illuminato, McCain è consapevole del fallimento dell’Onu, della sua paralisi e del vuoto in cui è caduto il Consiglio di Sicurezza. L’Onu è un articolo in liquidazione e McCain vuole sostituirla con una Lega delle Nazioni. Gli onusiani proveranno orrore, sta di fatto che su questo terreno il senatore repubblicano ha danzato sul ring, sferrando jab e colpi duri ai quali Obama non ha saputo mai rispondere con convinzione.

Sulla crisi finanziaria Obama è sembrato cavarsela meglio, ma bisogna vedere che effetto avrà sull’elettorato la proposta di tagli e controllo della spesa proposta da McCain. Lo sfascio finanziario viene da lontano, parte dall’esuberanza irrazionale degli anni di Clinton, ma è indubbio che l’amministrazione Bush vi abbia posto il sigillo e nessun controllo sui regolatori e sulle banche che impacchettavano spazzatura finanziaria. “When the economy is bad, the economy is the first issue in the election”, mi diceva qualche giorno fa Bill Schneider – uno dei più lucidi commentatori politici americani – durante un incontro a Washington. E’ la vera e unica zavorra elettorale di McCain. Potrebbe costargli – e per ora è questa la situazione – la corsa alla Casa Bianca. Il repubblicano ha riaffermato la sua natura di maverick e ricordato di aver chiesto le dimissioni del presidente della Security Exchange Commission.

Ha un piano in perfetto stile repubblicano per il fisco e il rilancio dell’economia e un’enfasi sul controllo della spesa e la corruzione. Ma tutto questo potrebbe non bastare perchè la magnitudo del terremoto finanziario non ha precedenti e l’economia americana sta per entrare tecnicamente in recessione. Un pantano che impedirà a McCain di volare nei sondaggi, la sua corsa da qui al 4 novembre sarà durissima, ai limiti del possibile.

McCain ha condotto bene il primo duello, non ha mai concesso un metro all’avversario e per 90 minuti è apparso il candidato migliore, quello più presidenziale. Ieri sera il senatore dell’Arizona sorrideva e aveva un buon motivo per essere contento, ma sa di aver vinto solo una battaglia, non la guerra.

Pezzo consigliato da leggere: Jennifer Rubin su Pajamas Media.

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Victory and Defeat in the Pipeline Era

Sep 25 2008 Published by Mario Sechi under America, Europa

Fondazione Magna Carta – American Enterprise Institute

New Transatlantic Relations 2008

Washington D.C., Finmeccanica Auditorium – September 22nd 2008
First session – The state of Transatlantic Relations
The emergence of center-right governments in Berlin, Paris, and Rome has improved the prospects for cooperation between the United States and Europe. Given these developments, what is the state of transatlantic relations? How will relations be affected by a new American president? And How should the alliance deal with a newly assertive Russia.
Keynote Speech by Mario Sechi

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Dear Friends,

This dissertation’s topic is the state of the art of “Transatlantic relationships”.

I am but a simple journalist. I am no essayist, nor a scholar or a government advisor: my whole time is devoted to making newspapers, and along with Magna Carta, I work hard to improve the level of my Country’s political and cultural debate.

I will spare you “common” knowledge on this issue, since it really is “uncommon”. Indeed, today’s meeting comes at a historical turn point in the global agenda.

In my view, two specific and recent events have marked a break in the international order:

A. The Wealth’s Ruin – Lehman Brothers, the fourth bank of the U.S.A., goes bankrupt after 158 years of operations on September 15th. So far, this is the highest peak of the financial turmoil started on August 2007. An “American crisis” whose end is still not in sight.

B. The Russian Bear is back – Old, but still efficient Mt-80 Russian tanks invade Georgia on last August 8th. The Russian President Medvedev sets out his doctrine on “spheres of influence”, and points to “symmetrical retaliation” in case of international sanctions against Russia. Oil and gas, not cannons or missiles, are his true weapons..

The world, sure, has witnessed a number of other terrific events. But personally, I do prefer to spot those events which have – or are likely to have – systemic effects. And, in the global power play, “breaks” matter even more than the game itself!

Also, a quick recall of the Italian experience could be useful.

Actually, my Country is quite small and quixotic. Yet, one should not forget it was home to Niccolò Machiavelli. As such, it also is an original political lab where “to govern is to make others believe”, and where “people rather forget about their father’s death than about the ruin of their own wealth”.

Let us now dig deeper into these concepts.


THE “RUIN OF WEALTH”

Let us take this very sentence by Machiavelli. Dear Friends, these are hard days for the global financial system. The American crisis has spread across the other markets: contagion is complete!

I don’t want to list the crisis’ causes: you all know them for sure. I prefer to stress that this crisis could become a chance to enhance our “Transatlantic Relationships”.

Never in history has been the chance to finally integrate US and EU accounting standards and financial rules so close!

The Italian Minister of Finance, Giulio Tremonti, was among the first thinkers to predict the current financial tsunami. His latest book, a must-read, is entitled “Of Fear and Hope”.

His analysis spans across Europe, Italy, focusing on the transition from the “Time of Gold” to the “Time of Iron”. On last September 8th, so goes Tremonti, “it was not just a bank that went bankrupt: it was the whole system, and this is not the beginning of the end, but the end of a principle. The whole sandcastle collapsed: bankers and their monstrous wages, controllers teaching us severe lessons while the poor remained the underdogs”.

The Italian turning G-8 presidency will strongly state the need for new rules, since this crisis has affected not only the markets, but the very confidence in the markets!

Without confidence, there will never be true economic recovery. Also, rules are not issued by regulators, but by governments.

The Italian scenario, by the way, is pretty peculiar, because quite paradoxically my Country now has a chance.

The housing bubble bursted quite belatedly, but Italy still has a banking system which is more solid that other countries have. The same remark applies to our insurance and pension system as well.

Bank do not go bust in Italy! They are maybe less sophisticated in their financial engineering, but they are more solid.

After this collapse, many experts think that there will be a return to the manufacturing industry – our area of expertise.

I think this could partly apply to the U.S. too. Uncontrolled off-shoring has been an error, and the West-East shift of production plants is not necessarily positive.

This is the right time to boost rules convergence in the U.S. and EU financial markets. The SEC and the EU Commission are working towards this goal, and the US presidential candidates, particularly John McCain, should recognize this chance.

The coming US elections, and the European elections (June 2009) should not represent an obstacle, but a spur towards this goal.

The facts: almost 75% of the world financial services are concentrated in the USA and in Europe.

This is a massive, but still deceptive figure: stiff competition from abroad lies ahead of us: 3 out of the 5 largest banks are Chinese, Dubai is becoming more and more attractive as time goes by…

The USA and Europe can win this challenge only by joining their forces.

The election debate in the USA must therefore be coped with carefully: it should be no time for sabre-rattling protectionist speeches, but should favour cost-saving and advantageous alliances.

Some very simple instances:

(i). A recent paper by Deutsche Bank Research concludes that cost savings on transaction in the sole sector of financial trading, would account for 48 bln $ per year.

(ii). Efficiency, transparency, common rules would allow the USA and Europe to smartly control harmful sovereign wealth funds.

This is a long way, we all know, but times have been consistently reduced by the crisis.

“Transatlantic Relationships”, in a nutshell, is the quest for a common Atlantic interest. As such, my vision may be somehow narrow-minded, but I see no better or faster solution at all!

THE RUSSIAN BEAR IS BACK

The Russian Bear’s awake was somehow expected, but almost no one expected such a rapid and strong raid on Georgia.

You all know the hard facts, and I am not going to recall them. But why do the Russians feel so strong and militarily/economically invulnerable?

First of all, the US army has no chance to effectively deter Russia until its overseas missions will last (Iraq and Afghanistan).

From an economic standpoint, the scenario is even worse: energy. To date, Europe is almost completely dependent of Russian gas and oil, which makes it very liable to Vladimir Putin’s diktat. If Gazprom closes its pipelines, that would be devastating for Europe: the winter can be very cold also in Europe, not only in Alaska!

Italy, too, has a word to say in this game…

THE ITALIAN JOB

A few weeks ago, the Financial Times stated that, at the State Department they regard “Italy as Russia’s Trojan horse in Europe”.

How wrong it is!

Italy is Russia’s main commercial partner.

But this is no news at all, since our relationship dates back to the Fifties, when Enrico Mattei (CEO of ENI) signed the first oil procurement contract with the former Soviet Union.

During the Sixties, then, ENI heavily contributed to build the Soviet Union’s energy infrastructures. And in 1969 a major gas procurement cooperation agreement was entered into.

In the Seventies and Eighties, ENI built several pipelines and gas compression facilities on Russian ground; in the Nineties it developed onto an “entrepreneurial partner”, and in 2000 it finally ventured into the new Blue Stream Pipeline Company.

The oil companies used to be seven (the “seven sisters”), but ENI went for Sister No. 8: Gazprom!

There is no need for Ivy League geopolitical studies to grasp Silvio Berlusconi’s “grand strategy”.

He definitely is a friend and ally of the United States of America: a loyal ally who sided with the US during the Iraq war, regardless of what was called “Jacques Chiroeder” (the anti-American France/Germany axis).

But Mr. Berlusconi, who indisputably is a friend of the US, publicly asked for no sanctions on Russia to avoid a confrontation between Europe and Russia. This stance was not appreciated at the Pentagon – Mr. Cheney’s recent visit in Rome was actually a clear failure – and this applies to the State Department, too.

But his move is very simply to understand if one considers the following facts:

  • Within a single decade, Russia has seized nearly all of Europe’s energy sources (look at the map hereabove) through Gazprom, a state-owned enterprise;
  • one of Gazprom’s most important partners in this sector is ENI, and ENI happens to be the leading Italian energy player, covering more than 70 countries, employing 76.000 people, 2007 net earnings swirling at around 9,5billion euro;
  • ENI is Gazprom’s largest client on a global scale;
  • ENI holds a 50 percent stake in the Green Stream project, tunnelling gas from North Africa to Europe; ENI owns 33.3 % of the Elephant oil cave. Even more interestingly, it has just committed itself to invest in Libya for another 25-years time span. Gazprom is planning to invest $300 milion in exploration and development licenses in Lybia. Eni holds a 50 percent in the Blue Stream pipeline built by Gazprom under the Black Sea.
  • Eni and Gazprom has signed a deal for the realization of the the South Stream Project, a new gas pipeline which will link Russia to EU across the Black Sea.
  • energy pipelines from the East and the South are bearing Kremlin labels, not White House labels!

ENEL TO LIGHT RUSSIA.

Italy’s other major energy player, ENEL (22 countries coverage, 50 million clients, 43,7 billion euro 2007 turnover, and 2007 net earning 4 billion euro) has managed San Petersburg’s power plant from June 2004 to September 2007.

Furthermore, ENEL has bought a 49,5% stake in RusEnergoSbyt from the ESN Group. RusEnergoSbyt is a company providing electricity to all of Russia’s major companies. On April 4th 2007, SeverEnergia (a consortium in which Enel owns a 40% stake and Eni a 60% stake, previously known as Enineftegaz) has acquired some interesting natural gas assets.

Today, ENEL owns 55,8% of the share capital of Genco (Generation Company) No. 5, “OGK-5″. ENEL is the first investor in Russia using a “top-end” integration across its operations.

A step back in history: during the Sixties, FIAT, the Italian car maker, built an industrial town named “Togliattigrad”, after Palmiro Togliatti, the famous party leader of the Italian Communist party.

Asking Italy to back sanctions against Russian – you see – is a complete paradox! Have you ever seen anyone voting sanctions against himself?

YANKEE COME TO MY HOME!

Lenin would have asked himself: what now?

Before answering this question, it is wise to cast a glance at US FDI (foreign direct investments) in Italy.

A Congress report of last April 18th is very insightful on this issue: the US have invested in Italy – a historical ally – the very low figure of 28,936 billion. Dwarfish Luxembourg can boast 82,588, Belgium 52, Ireland 83, Spain 49, Sweden 35, the Netherlands 215, the UK 364… to make it very clear: Italy is ranked last among the 11 European countries surveyed in the report!

This problem was highlighted by the US envoy’s words during the recent Cheney/Berlusconi meeting: “Our government is working with the Italians to reinforce mutual economic relationships”.

Really, is it?

Ronald P. Spogli, the US Ambassador to Italy, has a clear view on the situation. Serving in his capacity, Mr. Spogli has endeavoured to get Americans into Italian business, but “the situation is not encouraging”.

There are quite a number of reasons for this divestment from Italy on the US side.

Some of the reasons are not attributable to the US: chaotic legislation, massive red tape, high level of taxation, problems with criminality in some regions, constant blackmailing by worker unions like in the Alitalia case.

Nonetheless, a serious foreign policy commitment cannot exist without sound economic investment.

Abandoning a country, leaving it to other players, means just one thing: dangerous alliances can come to life. Alliances in which yesterday’s enemy (Russia) becomes today’s best friend…

SOME GOOD NEWS, AT LAST…

Is there only bad news?

No, because on one hand there have been some notable developments in the US’s “transatlantic drive”.

On the other hand, Silvio Berlusconi succeeded over Romano Prodi, who unilaterally withdrew Italian troops from Iraq. In Germany US-friendly Angela Merkel got Gerhard Schroeder’s post as Chancellor. In France Sarkozy is behaving as a friend of the US, eventually. Josè Zapatero is facing a harsh crisis in Spain, and David Cameron has sporting chances to win the next national election in the UK. Which make Europe more US-friendly than in the past.

Defence cooperation is improving. In Afghanistan, Italian soldiers now have more flexible engagement rules, and they are now fighting! Also, combat episodes are called for what they really are (war), without the routine politically correct “peace keeping” statements. And – even more interestingly – the public opinion accepts and largely backs this position.

Finmeccanica - hosting this event – has very strict relationships with the Pentagon and the US defence players. The Drs Technlogies deal marks a milestone in this strong cooperation, and shows that there is room for a common foreign and strategic policy.

Italy’s position of the Middle-East debate is more credible than under the Prodi government. This means at least the following:

  • No minister will be spotted walking through Beirut with Hezbollah members!;
  • moreover, no Italian minister will stay silent when palestinians will bomb Sderot, shouting loud if Israeli react.
  • no Italian minister will try to “understand” Ahmadinejad calling for the cancellation of Israel from geographic maps.
  • finally, no Italian minister will assure the Iranians are working towards civil nuclear capacity.

Understanding Europe is a difficult task, that requires lot of patience, as it is no young country anymore.

There is an “old Europe”, no doubt. But this old lady is no more a block disengaging itself, fearsome of its economic and demographic growth.

Some days ago, I have met the former Italian defence Minister, Antonio Martino. In a very explicit public debate, he overtly said to the US: “American friends, you must be patient, we Europeans are sometimes irritating but we are the only European friends you have”.

Today Europeans need the US, and the US need Europe more than ever before.

Machiavelli, after all, used to say that “where there is a strong will, there cannot be big difficulties”.

Ecco l’intervento di Franco Frattini, ministro degli Esteri: “A common vision between Europe and United States”.

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Le Nuove Relazioni Transatlantiche

Sep 19 2008 Published by Mario Sechi under America, Europa, Italia

Due appuntamenti di politica estera: il primo sabato 20 settembre a Cortina. Intervisto il ministro degli Esteri Franco Frattini nell’ambito del 7° convegno “Il Veneto per l’Italia, l’Italia per il Veneto”, organizzato dal Pdl.

Dopo Cortina, si vola a Washington per il convegno sulle Nuove Relazioni Transatlantiche organizzato dalla Fondazione Magna Carta e dall’American Enterprise Institute. Aprirò lunedì mattina alle 11 (ora di Washington DC) la prima sessione dell’incontro insieme a Victoria Nuland, già ambasciatore degli Stati Uniti presso la Nato, ecco il tema:

Lo stato delle Relazioni Transatlantiche

Con l’ascesa di governi di centro-destra a Berlino, Parigi e Roma le prospettive di cooperazione tra Europa e Stati Uniti sono notevolmente migliorate. Alla luce di questi sviluppi, qual è lo stato delle relazioni transatlantiche? Che ripercussioni avrà l’elezione di un nuovo presidente americano sui rapporti tra le due sponde dell’Atlantico? E come dovrà comportarsi l’Alleanza nei confronti del ritorno della Russia a una politica estera assertiva?

Keynote Speaker:
Mario Sechi
Victoria Nuland

Moderatore:
Steven Flanagan

Il programma dell’incontro di Washington è molto bello e cade in un momento delicatissimo dell’agenda internazionale.

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WSJ, più blog e più giornale

Sep 16 2008 Published by Mario Sechi under bloggers

The Wall Street Journal online cambia grafica e funzioni. Da oggi è online il nuovo website che ora è più blog e più giornale della rete. Ha una sua community, quick links per gli argomenti più caldi e una versione mobile eccellente (WSJ mobile reader) per Blackberry che ho già potuto testare nelle scorse settimane. Da visitare e soprattutto sempre da leggere.

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